WHAT’S Inflation and Deflation and a Speculation About the Bitcoin Future

Recently I started investing in bitcoins and I’ve heard a great deal of talks about inflation and deflation but not many people actually know and consider what inflation and deflation are. But let’s focus on inflation.

We always needed a method to trade value and probably the most practical way to take action is to link it with money. In past times it worked quite well because the money that has been issued was linked to gold. So every central bank needed enough gold to pay back all of the money it issued. However, in the past century this changed and gold is not what’s giving value to money but promises. Since you can guess it’s very an easy task to abuse to such power and certainly the major central banks are not renouncing to do so. That is why they’re printing money, so put simply they are “creating wealth” out of nothing without really having it. This technique not only exposes us to risks of economic collapse nonetheless it results also with the de-valuation of money. Therefore, because money will probably be worth less, whoever is selling something has to raise the price of goods to reflect their real value, that is called inflation. But what’s behind the amount of money printing? Why are central banks doing so? Well the answer they might offer you is that by de-valuing their currency they are helping the exports.

In fairness, inside our global economy that is true. However, that’s not the only real reason. By issuing fresh money we can afford to cover back the debts we’d, quite simply we make new debts to pay the old ones. But that is not only it, by de-valuing our currencies we have been de-facto de-valuing our debts. That’s why our countries love inflation. In inflationary environments it’s easier to grow because debts are cheap. But which are the consequences of all this? It’s hard to store wealth. So if Bitcoin Revolution keep the money (you worked hard to get) in your money you’re actually losing wealth because your money is de-valuing pretty quickly.

Because each central bank has an inflation target at around 2% we are able to well say that keeping money costs most of us at least 2% per year. This discourages savers and spur consumes. This is one way our economies are working, based on inflation and debts.

What about deflation? Well this is often the opposite of inflation and it is the biggest nightmare for our central banks, let’s understand why. Basically, we have deflation when overall the prices of goods fall. This would be caused by an increase of value of money. To begin with, it would hurt spending as consumers will be incentivised to save money because their value increase overtime. However merchants will undoubtedly be under constant pressure. They will need to sell their goods quick otherwise they will lose money as the price they will charge for their services will drop as time passes. But if there is something we learned in these years is that central banks and governments do not care much about consumers or merchants, what they care the most is DEBT!!. In a deflationary environment debt will become a real burden since it will only get bigger over time. Because our economies are based on debt you can imagine what will function as consequences of deflation.

So to conclude, inflation is growth friendly but is based on debt. Therefore the future generations will pay our debts. Deflation on the other hand makes growth harder but it means that future generations won’t have much debt to pay (in such context it might be possible to afford slow growth).

OK so how all this fits with bitcoins?

Well, bitcoins are designed to be an alternative for money also to be both a store of value and a mean for trading goods. They are limited in number and we’ll never have more than 21 million bitcoins around. Therefore they are designed to be deflationary. We now have all seen what the consequences of deflation are. However, in a bitcoin-based future it could still be possible for businesses to thrive. The ideal solution will be to switch from a debt-based economy to a share-based economy. In fact, because contracting debts in bitcoins will be very costly business can still have the capital they want by issuing shares of these company. This could be an interesting alternative as it will offer you many investment opportunities and the wealth generated will undoubtedly be distributed more evenly among people. However, simply for clarity, I have to say that part of the costs of borrowing capital will be reduced under bitcoins because the fees would be extremely low and there will not be intermediaries between transactions (banks rip people off, both borrowers and lenders). This would buffer some of the negative sides of deflation. Nevertheless, bitcoins will face many problems unfortunately, as governments still need fiat money to pay back the huge debts that we inherited from the past generations.

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